News & Advice
Market Outlook Summer 2026
Ravensdown Market Outlook: Global shifts drive dynamic fertiliser market
Geopolitical movements and volatile market responses are shaping the global fertiliser landscape with flow-on effects to New Zealand.
Mike Whitty, Ravensdown’s Chief Operating Officer, says international policy change is already influencing global trade flows.
The introduction of European tariffs on Russian fertiliser imports has seen product redirected into major markets such as Brazil, China and India. And the impact of the European Union carbon border adjustment mechanism has resulted in a rush on high carbon products into the region ahead of implementation on January 1.
“Urea exports from North Africa into Europe surged ahead of the levy, pushing prices up by around 15% in just a week. It’s a reminder of how quickly government policy can reshape commodity markets.”
“Across the Atlantic, the United States has been dealing with its own upheaval. While import tariffs were lifted on most major fertiliser products in mid-November, the impact of this is yet to be determined.”
Meanwhile, India (the world’s largest urea importer) continues to inject volatility into the global market. Since June, Indian activity has pushed international urea prices from US $400 per tonne to US $500 per tonne and back again.
Mike says that with the world’s biggest urea players pulling the market in different directions, short-term pricing remains highly uncertain.
“For New Zealand, global price signals are mixed. DAP values are softening internationally, urea prices remain firm and potash is largely stable. However, the standout factor for local buyers is currency movement.”
Summer Market Outlook available now.